Notre Dame rolls into the 2025 college football season with more momentum than it’s had in years. After a strong playoff run that ended with a loss to Ohio State in the national title game, the Irish returned much of their talent, a loaded backfield, and plenty of national attention. Expectations are high in South Bend, and the futures markets have taken notice.
Still, national projections tell a more cautious story. Despite fielding one of the most complete rosters in the country, Notre Dame isn’t seen as a top favorite. ESPN’s Football Power Index ranks them seventh, and betting odds reflect a level of skepticism not typically given to a team coming off a championship appearance.
1. Notre Dame’s National Title Odds and What They Really Mean
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish odds might not place them as front-runners, but smart bettors know there’s value in a team with this kind of upside. With a veteran offensive line, a dominant defensive front, and impactful upgrades at the skill positions, Notre Dame is built to outperform expectations and deliver a strong return.
One factor behind the modest odds is the quarterback situation. With Riley Leonard gone, the Irish will start either CJ Carr or Kenny Minchey. Neither has taken meaningful snaps in a playoff environment, but they’ll step into one of the most favorable supporting casts in the country. The schedule is tough early, but manageable overall. It’s a setup that leaves plenty of room for a strong run.
2. Jeremiyah Love in the Heisman Futures Conversation
Jeremiyah Love enters 2025 with a shot at making real Heisman noise. He’s coming off a breakout year where he rushed for 1,125 yards, added 237 more receiving, and scored 19 total touchdowns. Even more impressive, those numbers came on just 191 touches. With more volume this fall, the ceiling for production goes way up.
His ability to flip the field on a single play makes him one of college football’s most dangerous weapons. He broke off four runs of 60 yards or more last year, including a 98-yard burst in the playoff against Indiana. Plays like that can define a Heisman campaign, especially if they happen in nationally televised games. The tools are there. Now the volume needs to follow.
3. What Love Needs to Do to Be a True Heisman Threat
For Love to enter the conversation with top quarterbacks, he’ll need 2,250 total yards and at least 25 touchdowns. Those numbers match the output of recent Heisman finalists at the running back position. Ashton Jeanty had 30 touchdowns last year and finished second. Jonathan Taylor posted 2,255 total yards and 26 touchdowns in 2019 and still didn’t win.
If Love stays healthy and Notre Dame continues to win, his campaign could gain momentum quickly. The Irish open the season in a prime-time game at Miami, followed by a high-profile home matchup against Texas A&M. Big performances in both could launch him into the spotlight. But the path isn’t easy. Notre Dame spreads the ball around, and game flow could limit his second-half touches if the team is winning comfortably.
4. Notre Dame’s Quarterback Situation Could Shape the Season
The Irish are placing their trust in youth under center. Whether it’s Carr or Minchey taking the first snap, both quarterbacks will be making their first major college start. That kind of transition can be tricky, especially with tough opponents early. But the coaching staff has set the new starter up for success by surrounding him with talent at every position group.
An inexperienced quarterback often means a stronger reliance on the run game. That could benefit Love statistically while buying time for the new signal caller to grow into the role. Eventually, though, Notre Dame will need balance to beat top teams in December. The offensive strategy early in the season could set the tone for how far this team can go and how much of the spotlight Love receives.
5. Why the ESPN FPI Might Be Selling the Irish Short
Notre Dame’s projected record of 9.3-2.7 doesn’t align with what the program brings back in 2025. The Irish return one of the most complete rosters in the country, having reached the national title game last season. FPI gives them just a 2.7% chance to win it all and less than a 50% chance to make the playoffs, even though no opponent on their schedule opens the season ranked higher. That leaves room to question how predictive the model really is.
Much of the early playoff picture will depend on outcomes from several Top NCAAF Matchups to Watch. Games like Georgia vs. Texas, Oregon vs. USC, and Alabama vs. LSU are all expected to shift rankings across the board. Notre Dame’s own contests against Miami and Texas A&M give the Irish a rare opportunity to set the tone early. If they deliver in those, and chaos hits other top programs, the gap in national perception may close faster than expected.
Conclusion: All Eyes on South Bend
Notre Dame enters the season in an unusual spot: talented, proven, and still doubted. The projections might not favor the Irish, but the building blocks for a championship run are in place. Jeremiyah Love is ready to take the spotlight, and the quarterback transition is more of a reset than a rebuild. If early wins come, the futures market will adjust quickly. Until then, the team just has to keep proving it on the field.
