Fifteen games into the 2025/26 Premier League season, the table is already unrecognisable from the assumptions we made just a few weeks ago. The campaign has been a blur of false dawns, resurgent challengers, worrying dips, and wild swings in momentum. And if the first third of the season has taught us anything, it’s this: don’t crown a champion in autumn.
Liverpool learned that the hard way. Tipped as champions-elect after five games, they now sit ninth. Arsenal looked poised to run away with the league only a month ago, yet Saturday’s defeat at Villa Park has dragged their rivals back within touching distance. Aston Villa are now three points off the summit, and Manchester City just two. Chelsea, once considered part of the conversation, are slipping, though not yet out of it.
Momentum has shifted quickly, and judging by the form table, there may be plenty more drama to come.
Arsenal: Still Favourites, But Fragility Looms
Arsenal’s recent haul of eight points from five matches is hardly disastrous, especially given the difficulty of their opponents. Mikel Arteta’s side can still rely on a deep squad, a maturing core, and the confidence that comes with leading the league. They are still the favourites in the online betting.
But concerns are rising on two fronts: injuries and psychology.
Defensive depth, long considered a strength, is being severely tested. Both Saliba and Gabriel have spent time sidelined, and with backup centre-half Cristhian Mosquera also out, the Gunners’ back line in the loss to Villa looked makeshift at best. Arsenal know all too well how one key defensive injury can derail a title push, Saliba’s absence in 2022/23 still haunts supporters.
Then there’s the mental challenge. Arsenal have not lifted the Premier League trophy since 2004. Other long-awaited title winners, Chelsea in 2005, Leicester in 2016, Liverpool in 2020, built such commanding leads that nerves never truly had a chance to creep in. Arsenal won’t enjoy that luxury this season. The chasing pack is too strong, the margins too tight, and recent form too inconsistent.
Their festive run of Wolves, Everton, Brighton, Villa, Bournemouth and Liverpool could define whether they keep control or crumble under pressure.
Manchester City: Imperfect, Unpredictable, and Still Terrifying
For most clubs, trailing by two points after 15 games would feel like a missed opportunity. For Manchester City, it feels like a platform.
Pep Guardiola has spent years perfecting the art of the slow start. City famously swallowed large deficits in both the 2020/21 and 2022/23 seasons before powering through the spring with ruthless winning streaks. History has conditioned fans to trust the process.
This season’s City look different: more expressive, more chaotic, and certainly more vulnerable at the back. Fulham struck four past them; Leeds found gaps too easily. But their attacking firepower is extraordinary. Jeremy Doku is electric, Phil Foden rejuvenated, Rayan Cherki emerging, and Erling Haaland continues to bend goalscoring logic.
City may concede more than before, but they can score in frightening bursts. And their festive fixtures play into their hands. Most of their tougher matches, West Ham, Chelsea, Brighton, come at the Etihad, where City rarely drop points.
Guardiola summed it up perfectly in November: “Now the real, real season starts.” You’d be brave to bet against them.
Aston Villa: Contenders or Passing Storm?
If anyone has disrupted the natural order this year, it’s Aston Villa.
Nine wins from 10 matches. Their best run since 1919. Victories over Spurs, Man City, and now Arsenal. And they’ve achieved it despite neither Ollie Watkins nor Morgan Rogers hitting top gear yet. Unai Emery’s football is fearless, well-drilled, and tactically sharp.
But Villa’s own manager insists on humility. Emery continues to downplay their title credentials, reminding supporters that they were largely written off in August. Realistically, while Villa have earned their position among the top three, they remain only six points ahead of seventh-place Everton. Their likely battle is still for Champions League qualification, not the Premier League trophy.
Yet with momentum, confidence, and a truly united squad, Villa could absolutely influence—if not outright shape—the title race. Their December clashes with Manchester United, Chelsea, and Arsenal will tell us whether they’re here to stay.
Chelsea: Talented, Youthful, and Probably Too Far Back
Chelsea’s season has been a puzzle. Enzo Maresca’s side remain talented and tactically intriguing, but inconsistency, youth, and injuries in defence have cost them. With just two points from their last three matches, they’re now eight points off Arsenal and on a similar trajectory to their troubled 2023/24 campaign.
Maresca insists the table remains tight, and he’s not wrong. But Chelsea’s upcoming fixtures—Everton, Newcastle, Villa, Bournemouth, and then Manchester City away—make a winning run unlikely. Their margin for error is thinner than anyone else’s.
Unless they rediscover form immediately, their title hopes may already belong to another season.
What Happens Next? Expect the Unexpected
The Christmas schedule often reshapes the Premier League table, and this year is no exception. Arsenal and Chelsea face daunting runs, while Manchester City enjoy a relatively favourable slate of games. By early January, City could very well be top.
But if this season has taught us anything, it’s to take predictions with a pinch of salt. Two weeks can transform everything, and the title race remains wide open.
